TSG Hoffenheim
St. Pauli won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
St. Pauli
Postmatch editorial
St. Pauli bent the night away from the script
The final score was TSG Hoffenheim 0-1 St. Pauli. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Mathias Pereira Lage put the first mark on the match 45+4', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: TSG Hoffenheim led Shots on target 11-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. TSG Hoffenheim also shaded Corners 10-3.
Before kickoff, our model made TSG Hoffenheim the likeliest result at 61.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced TSG Hoffenheim at 64.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.9%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
TSG Hoffenheim
61.6%
Market result
TSG Hoffenheim
64.7%
BTTS
Yes
54.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
St. Pauli
11
3
Corners
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
St. Pauli
10
3
Total shots
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
St. Pauli
20
11
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.