Postmatch editorial
FSV Mainz 05 flipped the prices on their head
The final score was TSG Hoffenheim 1-2 FSV Mainz 05. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.
The decisive turn arrived late when Phillip Tietz scored 79' for FSV Mainz 05.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: TSG Hoffenheim led Total shots 16-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. TSG Hoffenheim also shaded Corners 7-3.
Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made TSG Hoffenheim the favourite at 58.8% implied probability. That market lean missed.
Market check
Market result
TSG Hoffenheim
58.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
16
9
Corners
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
7
3
Possession
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
60%
40%