TSG Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05 won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
FSV Mainz 05
Postmatch editorial
FSV Mainz 05 flipped the prices on their head
The final score was TSG Hoffenheim 1-2 FSV Mainz 05. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Phillip Tietz scored 79' for FSV Mainz 05.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: TSG Hoffenheim led Total shots 16-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. TSG Hoffenheim also shaded Corners 7-3.
Before kickoff, our model made TSG Hoffenheim the likeliest result at 50.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced TSG Hoffenheim at 58.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (59.4%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
TSG Hoffenheim
50.6%
Market result
TSG Hoffenheim
58.8%
BTTS
Yes
59.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
16
9
Corners
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
7
3
Possession
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
60%
40%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.