Postmatch editorial

FSV Mainz 05 flipped the prices on their head

The final score was TSG Hoffenheim 1-2 FSV Mainz 05. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

The decisive turn arrived late when Phillip Tietz scored 79' for FSV Mainz 05.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: TSG Hoffenheim led Total shots 16-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. TSG Hoffenheim also shaded Corners 7-3.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made TSG Hoffenheim the favourite at 58.8% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

TSG Hoffenheim

58.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

TSG Hoffenheim

TSG Hoffenheim

FSV Mainz 05

16

9

Corners

TSG Hoffenheim

TSG Hoffenheim

FSV Mainz 05

7

3

Possession

TSG Hoffenheim

TSG Hoffenheim

FSV Mainz 05

60%

40%