TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Borussia Dortmund
Postmatch editorial
TSG Hoffenheim turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 Borussia Dortmund. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Andrej Kramaric scored 90+8' for TSG Hoffenheim.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: TSG Hoffenheim led Total shots 13-8. TSG Hoffenheim also shaded Shots on target 4-3.
Before kickoff, our model made TSG Hoffenheim the likeliest result at 39.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced TSG Hoffenheim at 46.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (63.9%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
TSG Hoffenheim
39.8%
Market result
TSG Hoffenheim
46.5%
BTTS
Yes
63.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
Borussia Dortmund
13
8
Shots on target
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
Borussia Dortmund
4
3
Corners
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
Borussia Dortmund
4
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.