Postmatch editorial
The script held and TSG Hoffenheim delivered it
The final score was TSG Hoffenheim 1-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Wouter Burger put the first mark on the match 9', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: TSG Hoffenheim led Shots on target 8-2. TSG Hoffenheim also shaded Total shots 19-8.
Before kickoff, our model made TSG Hoffenheim the likeliest result at 43.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced TSG Hoffenheim at 42.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (62.2%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
TSG Hoffenheim
43.6%
Market result
TSG Hoffenheim
42.8%
BTTS
Yes
62.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
8
2
Total shots
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
19
8
Possession
Bayer 04 LeverkusenTSG Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
38%
62%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.