Postmatch editorial
The pre-match tension never quite broke
The final score was Trinidad and Tobago 2-2 Grenada. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Reon Moore 74', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Trinidad and Tobago led Corners 4-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Grenada also shaded Shots on target 5-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Trinidad and Tobago the likeliest result at 69.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Trinidad and Tobago at 80.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.8%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 13.00 against a fair line of 11.44. That translated to an edge of 13.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Trinidad and Tobago
69.8%
Market result
Trinidad and Tobago
80.6%
BTTS
No
58.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Trinidad and TobagoTrinidad and Tobago
Grenada
4
2
Shots on target
GrenadaTrinidad and Tobago
Grenada
5
6
Possession
Trinidad and TobagoTrinidad and Tobago
Grenada
54%
46%
Model edge
2
Betfair
Market odd
13.00
Fair odd
11.44
Edge
13.6%
Stake
0.25u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.