Trinidad and Tobago
Trinidad and Tobago won after full-time.
2 - 2
FT
Bermuda
Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was Trinidad and Tobago 2-2 Bermuda. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
K. Henry put the first mark on the match 9', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Trinidad and Tobago led Corners 17-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Trinidad and Tobago also shaded Possession 68%-32%.
Before kickoff, our model made Trinidad and Tobago the likeliest result at 58.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Trinidad and Tobago at 93.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.5%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.13 against a fair line of 1.12. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Trinidad and Tobago
58.2%
Market result
Trinidad and Tobago
93.5%
BTTS
Yes
51.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Trinidad and TobagoTrinidad and Tobago
Bermuda
17
2
Possession
Trinidad and TobagoTrinidad and Tobago
Bermuda
68%
32%
Total shots
Trinidad and TobagoTrinidad and Tobago
Bermuda
21
12
Model edge
1
Bet365
Market odd
1.13
Fair odd
1.12
Edge
0.9%
Stake
2.99u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.