Toulouse
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Paris
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Draw
The final score was Toulouse 1-1 Paris. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Julián Vignolo 87', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Toulouse led Shots on target 10-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Toulouse also shaded Total shots 23-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Toulouse the likeliest result at 42.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Toulouse at 50.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.3%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Toulouse
42.4%
Market result
Toulouse
50.0%
BTTS
No
51.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
ToulouseToulouse
Paris
10
2
Total shots
ToulouseToulouse
Paris
23
5
Corners
ToulouseToulouse
Paris
12
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.