Toulouse
Olympique Marseille won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Olympique Marseille
Postmatch editorial
Olympique Marseille made the numbers look right
The final score was Toulouse 0-1 Olympique Marseille. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Mason Greenwood put the first mark on the match 18', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Olympique Marseille led Shots on target 2-3. Toulouse also shaded Corners 4-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Olympique Marseille the likeliest result at 38.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Olympique Marseille at 46.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.8%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Olympique Marseille
38.9%
Market result
Olympique Marseille
46.5%
BTTS
Yes
57.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Olympique MarseilleToulouse
Olympique Marseille
2
3
Corners
ToulouseToulouse
Olympique Marseille
4
2
Total shots
ToulouseToulouse
Olympique Marseille
12
10
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.