Toulouse
Toulouse won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Olympique Lyonnais
Postmatch editorial
Toulouse flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Toulouse 2-1 Olympique Lyonnais. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Warren Kamanzi scored 78' for Toulouse.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Toulouse led Shots on target 6-3. Olympique Lyonnais also shaded Possession 39%-61%.
Before kickoff, our model made Olympique Lyonnais the likeliest result at 44.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Olympique Lyonnais at 54.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Olympique Lyonnais
44.4%
Market result
Olympique Lyonnais
54.1%
BTTS
Yes
50.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
ToulouseToulouse
Olympique Lyonnais
6
3
Possession
Olympique LyonnaisToulouse
Olympique Lyonnais
39%
61%
Total shots
Olympique LyonnaisToulouse
Olympique Lyonnais
14
18
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.