Postmatch editorial
West Ham United bent the night away from the script
The final score was Tottenham Hotspur 1-2 West Ham United. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Callum Wilson scored 90+3' for West Ham United.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Tottenham Hotspur led Shots on target 6-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Tottenham Hotspur also shaded Corners 11-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Tottenham Hotspur the likeliest result at 55.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Tottenham Hotspur at 54.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.4%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Tottenham Hotspur
55.9%
Market result
Tottenham Hotspur
54.6%
BTTS
Yes
57.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Tottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur
West Ham United
6
4
Corners
Tottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur
West Ham United
11
5
Possession
Tottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur
West Ham United
62%
38%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.