Tottenham Hotspur
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Leeds United
Postmatch editorial
The pre-match tension never quite broke
The final score was Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Leeds United. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Dominic Calvert-Lewin 74', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Tottenham Hotspur led Corners 14-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Tottenham Hotspur also shaded Total shots 16-11.
Before kickoff, our model made Tottenham Hotspur the likeliest result at 41.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Tottenham Hotspur at 54.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.0%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.91 against a fair line of 1.85. That translated to an edge of 3.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Tottenham Hotspur
41.9%
Market result
Tottenham Hotspur
54.9%
BTTS
Yes
53.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Tottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur
Leeds United
14
2
Total shots
Tottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur
Leeds United
16
11
Shots on target
Leeds UnitedTottenham Hotspur
Leeds United
3
4
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
1.91
Fair odd
1.85
Edge
3.2%
Stake
0.94u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.