Tottenham Hotspur
Crystal Palace won after full-time.
1 - 3
FT
Crystal Palace
Postmatch editorial
Crystal Palace found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Tottenham Hotspur 1-3 Crystal Palace. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Tottenham Hotspur struck first through Dominic Solanke 34', but Crystal Palace recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Tottenham Hotspur led Corners 6-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Crystal Palace also shaded Possession 40%-60%.
Before kickoff, our model made Crystal Palace the likeliest result at 38.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Tottenham Hotspur at 40.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.4%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Crystal Palace
38.9%
Market result
Tottenham Hotspur
40.7%
BTTS
Yes
54.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Tottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur
Crystal Palace
6
3
Possession
Crystal PalaceTottenham Hotspur
Crystal Palace
40%
60%
Total shots
Tottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur
Crystal Palace
12
9
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.