Postmatch editorial

Arsenal made the numbers look right

The final score was Tottenham Hotspur 1-4 Arsenal. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Viktor Gyökeres scored 90+4' for Arsenal.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Arsenal led Total shots 6-20. Arsenal also shaded Corners 2-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Arsenal the likeliest result at 63.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Arsenal at 69.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betway. The market was offering 1.60 against a fair line of 1.56. That translated to an edge of 2.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Arsenal

63.4%

Hit

Market result

Arsenal

69.4%

Hit

BTTS

No

50.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Arsenal

Tottenham Hotspur

Arsenal

6

20

Corners

Arsenal

Tottenham Hotspur

Arsenal

2

5

Shots on target

Arsenal

Tottenham Hotspur

Arsenal

5

7

Model edge

2

Betway

Market odd

1.60

Fair odd

1.56

Edge

2.6%

Stake

1.24u

That ticket matched the final outcome.