Postmatch editorial

Torino settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Torino 2-1 Sassuolo. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Sassuolo struck first through Kristian Thorstvedt 51', but Torino recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Sassuolo led Shots on target 4-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. Torino also shaded Total shots 18-13.

Before kickoff, our model made Torino the likeliest result at 42.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sassuolo at 37.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.2%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Dafabet. The market was offering 3.05 against a fair line of 2.88. That translated to an edge of 5.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Torino

42.0%

Hit

Market result

Sassuolo

37.2%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

52.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Sassuolo

Torino

Sassuolo

4

7

Total shots

Torino

Torino

Sassuolo

18

13

Corners

Torino

Torino

Sassuolo

7

5

Model edge

2

Dafabet

Market odd

3.05

Fair odd

2.88

Edge

5.9%

Stake

0.61u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.