Postmatch editorial
Cagliari flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Torino 1-2 Cagliari. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Torino struck first through Nikola Vlašić 27', but Cagliari recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Torino led Shots on target 10-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Torino also shaded Total shots 19-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Torino the likeliest result at 49.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Torino at 55.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.5%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Torino
49.3%
Market result
Torino
55.1%
BTTS
No
53.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
TorinoTorino
Cagliari
10
4
Total shots
TorinoTorino
Cagliari
19
9
Corners
TorinoTorino
Cagliari
6
2
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.