Postmatch editorial

Draw found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Togo 2-2 Mauritania. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Thibault Klidjé put the first mark on the match 4', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Togo led Shots on target 8-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Togo also shaded Corners 5-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Togo the likeliest result at 50.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Togo at 57.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (65.7%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Togo

50.5%

Miss

Market result

Togo

57.1%

Miss

BTTS

No

65.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Togo

Togo

Mauritania

8

4

Corners

Togo

Togo

Mauritania

5

1

Possession

Togo

Togo

Mauritania

57%

43%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.