Postmatch editorial

Congo DR turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Togo 0-1 Congo DR. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Cédric Bakambu put the first mark on the match 7', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Togo led Shots on target 2-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Congo DR also shaded Total shots 2-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Congo DR the likeliest result at 38.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Congo DR at 52.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (65.2%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 4.33 against a fair line of 4.02. That translated to an edge of 7.7% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Congo DR

38.6%

Hit

Market result

Congo DR

52.4%

Hit

BTTS

No

65.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Togo

Togo

Congo DR

2

1

Total shots

Congo DR

Togo

Congo DR

2

4

Corners

Togo

Togo

Congo DR

5

2

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

4.33

Fair odd

4.02

Edge

7.7%

Stake

0.49u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.