Postmatch editorial

Zambia settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Tanzania 0-1 Zambia. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The decisive turn arrived late when Fashion Sakala scored 75' for Zambia.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Zambia led Shots on target 2-4. Zambia also shaded Corners 4-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Tanzania the likeliest result at 45.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Zambia at 37.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.2%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 3.35 against a fair line of 3.15. That translated to an edge of 6.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Tanzania

45.6%

Miss

Market result

Zambia

37.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

53.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Zambia

Tanzania

Zambia

2

4

Corners

Zambia

Tanzania

Zambia

4

6

Total shots

Tanzania

Tanzania

Zambia

7

6

Model edge

1

10bet

Market odd

3.35

Fair odd

3.15

Edge

6.3%

Stake

0.58u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.