Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean

The final score was Tanzania 0-1 Niger. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Daniel Sosah put the first mark on the match 58', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Tanzania led Corners 4-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. Tanzania also shaded Total shots 7-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Tanzania the likeliest result at 52.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Tanzania at 58.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.87 against a fair line of 1.81. That translated to an edge of 3.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Tanzania

52.5%

Miss

Market result

Tanzania

58.1%

Miss

BTTS

No

54.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Tanzania

Tanzania

Niger

4

0

Total shots

Tanzania

Tanzania

Niger

7

4

Possession

Tanzania

Tanzania

Niger

57%

43%

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.87

Fair odd

1.81

Edge

3.3%

Stake

0.96u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.