Postmatch editorial

Tahiti turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Tahiti 2-0 Vanuatu. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Jonathan Spokeyjack put the first mark on the match 8', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Vanuatu led Total shots 11-19, even though the scoreboard went another way. Vanuatu also shaded Possession 39%-61%.

Before kickoff, our model made Tahiti the likeliest result at 60.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Tahiti at 63.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.6%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Unibet. The market was offering 1.70 against a fair line of 1.66. That translated to an edge of 2.4% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Tahiti

60.1%

Hit

Market result

Tahiti

63.7%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

52.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Vanuatu

Tahiti

Vanuatu

11

19

Possession

Vanuatu

Tahiti

Vanuatu

39%

61%

Corners

Vanuatu

Tahiti

Vanuatu

4

7

Model edge

1

Unibet

Market odd

1.70

Fair odd

1.66

Edge

2.4%

Stake

1.12u

That ticket matched the final outcome.