Postmatch editorial

Switzerland bent the night away from the script

The final score was Sweden 0-2 Switzerland. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

The decisive turn arrived late when Johan Manzambi scored 90+4' for Switzerland.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Switzerland led Shots on target 0-8. Switzerland also shaded Total shots 7-17.

Before kickoff, our model made Sweden the likeliest result at 45.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sweden at 41.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.7%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Sweden

45.5%

Miss

Market result

Sweden

41.0%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

55.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Switzerland

Sweden

Switzerland

0

8

Total shots

Switzerland

Sweden

Switzerland

7

17

Corners

Switzerland

Sweden

Switzerland

4

9

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.