Sweden
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Slovenia
Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was Sweden 1-1 Slovenia. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Gustav Lundgren 87', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Slovenia led Shots on target 2-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Slovenia also shaded Total shots 11-17.
Before kickoff, our model made Sweden the likeliest result at 56.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sweden at 59.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.4%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 188bet. The market was offering 1.67 against a fair line of 1.63. That translated to an edge of 2.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Sweden
56.2%
Market result
Sweden
59.2%
BTTS
No
52.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
SloveniaSweden
Slovenia
2
3
Total shots
SloveniaSweden
Slovenia
11
17
Possession
SwedenSweden
Slovenia
61%
39%
Model edge
1
188bet
Market odd
1.67
Fair odd
1.63
Edge
2.5%
Stake
1.13u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.