Sweden
Kosovo won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Kosovo
Postmatch editorial
Kosovo flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Sweden 0-1 Kosovo. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Fisnik Asllani put the first mark on the match 32', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Sweden led Corners 12-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. Sweden also shaded Total shots 13-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Sweden the likeliest result at 59.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sweden at 75.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.6%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Sweden
59.4%
Market result
Sweden
75.2%
BTTS
Yes
53.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
SwedenSweden
Kosovo
12
0
Total shots
SwedenSweden
Kosovo
13
7
Possession
SwedenSweden
Kosovo
67%
33%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.