Postmatch editorial

The script held and Suriname delivered it

The final score was Suriname 4-1 St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines struck first through Oalex Anderson 31', but Suriname recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Suriname led Possession 67%-33%. Suriname also shaded Total shots 15-9.

Before kickoff, our model made Suriname the likeliest result at 64.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Suriname at 96.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betfair. The market was offering 1.09 against a fair line of 1.09. That translated to an edge of 0.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Suriname

64.6%

Hit

Market result

Suriname

96.2%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

52.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Suriname

Suriname

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

67%

33%

Total shots

Suriname

Suriname

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

15

9

Shots on target

Suriname

Suriname

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

6

4

Model edge

1

Betfair

Market odd

1.09

Fair odd

1.09

Edge

0.0%

Stake

4.98u

That ticket matched the final outcome.