Postmatch editorial

The script held and Suriname delivered it

The final score was Suriname 1-0 Puerto Rico. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Jaden Montnor scored 79' for Suriname.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Suriname led Shots on target 3-0. Suriname also shaded Total shots 15-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Suriname the likeliest result at 53.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Suriname at 76.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.7%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.28 against a fair line of 1.26. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Suriname

53.8%

Hit

Market result

Suriname

76.9%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

51.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Suriname

Suriname

Puerto Rico

3

0

Total shots

Suriname

Suriname

Puerto Rico

15

3

Possession

Suriname

Suriname

Puerto Rico

63%

37%

Model edge

1

Dafabet

Market odd

1.28

Fair odd

1.26

Edge

1.6%

Stake

1.84u

That ticket matched the final outcome.