Suriname
Suriname won after full-time.
4 - 0
FT
El Salvador
Postmatch editorial
Suriname settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Suriname 4-0 El Salvador. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Dhoraso Klas scored 83' for Suriname.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Suriname led Shots on target 4-3. El Salvador also shaded Corners 2-3.
Before kickoff, our model made El Salvador the likeliest result at 36.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Suriname at 60.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.1%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Unibet. The market was offering 1.82 against a fair line of 1.77. That translated to an edge of 2.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
El Salvador
36.5%
Market result
Suriname
60.4%
BTTS
No
51.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
SurinameSuriname
El Salvador
4
3
Corners
El SalvadorSuriname
El Salvador
2
3
Total shots
SurinameSuriname
El Salvador
13
10
Model edge
1
Unibet
Market odd
1.82
Fair odd
1.77
Edge
2.8%
Stake
1.00u
That ticket matched the final outcome.