Postmatch editorial
The script held and Suriname delivered it
The final score was Suriname 3-0 Cayman Islands. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Gleofilo Vlijter scored 76' for Suriname.
Before kickoff, our model made Suriname the likeliest result at 70.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Suriname at 94.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.2%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 888sport. The market was offering 1.12 against a fair line of 1.11. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Suriname
70.1%
Market result
Suriname
94.3%
BTTS
Yes
54.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
No reliable match statistics were returned for this game.
Model edge
1
888sport
Market odd
1.12
Fair odd
1.11
Edge
0.9%
Stake
3.24u
That ticket matched the final outcome.