Sunderland
Nottingham Forest won after full-time.
0 - 5
FT
Nottingham Forest
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Nottingham Forest
The final score was Sunderland 0-5 Nottingham Forest. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Elliot Anderson scored 90+5' for Nottingham Forest.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Nottingham Forest led Shots on target 4-6. Nottingham Forest also shaded Corners 3-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Nottingham Forest the likeliest result at 37.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sunderland at 37.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.0%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Nottingham Forest
37.3%
Market result
Sunderland
37.3%
BTTS
Yes
52.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Nottingham ForestSunderland
Nottingham Forest
4
6
Corners
Nottingham ForestSunderland
Nottingham Forest
3
6
Possession
SunderlandSunderland
Nottingham Forest
61%
39%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.