Postmatch editorial

The script held and Fulham delivered it

The final score was Sunderland 1-3 Fulham. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Alex Iwobi scored 85' for Fulham.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Fulham led Shots on target 2-4. Sunderland also shaded Corners 6-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Fulham the likeliest result at 36.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Fulham at 39.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.0%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Fulham

36.5%

Hit

Market result

Fulham

39.4%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

52.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Fulham

Sunderland

Fulham

2

4

Corners

Sunderland

Sunderland

Fulham

6

4

Possession

Sunderland

Sunderland

Fulham

53%

47%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.