Postmatch editorial
Sunderland found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Sunderland 2-1 Crystal Palace. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Crystal Palace struck first through Yéremy Pino 30', but Sunderland recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Sunderland led Shots on target 7-2. Sunderland also shaded Total shots 13-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Crystal Palace the likeliest result at 37.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sunderland at 41.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.3%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Crystal Palace
37.1%
Market result
Sunderland
41.7%
BTTS
No
53.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
SunderlandSunderland
Crystal Palace
7
2
Total shots
SunderlandSunderland
Crystal Palace
13
6
Possession
SunderlandSunderland
Crystal Palace
57%
43%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.