Sunderland
Sunderland won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Chelsea
Postmatch editorial
Sunderland flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Sunderland 2-1 Chelsea. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Trai Hume put the first mark on the match 25', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Sunderland led Total shots 21-8. Sunderland also shaded Shots on target 6-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Chelsea the likeliest result at 43.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Chelsea at 48.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Chelsea
43.6%
Market result
Chelsea
48.8%
BTTS
Yes
55.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
SunderlandSunderland
Chelsea
21
8
Shots on target
SunderlandSunderland
Chelsea
6
3
Corners
SunderlandSunderland
Chelsea
6
2
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.