Postmatch editorial

Draw found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Sudan 1-1 South Sudan. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The late equaliser came from David Omot Sebit 90+8', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Sudan led Shots on target 3-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Sudan also shaded Total shots 6-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Sudan the likeliest result at 54.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sudan at 76.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (62.0%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 1.40 against a fair line of 1.38. That translated to an edge of 1.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Sudan

54.2%

Miss

Market result

Sudan

76.9%

Miss

BTTS

No

62.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Sudan

Sudan

South Sudan

3

2

Total shots

Sudan

Sudan

South Sudan

6

4

Possession

Sudan

South Sudan

50%

50%

Model edge

1

10bet

Market odd

1.40

Fair odd

1.38

Edge

1.4%

Stake

1.55u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.