Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Sudan 0-0 Senegal. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

Neither Sudan nor Senegal found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Senegal led Total shots 7-19, even though the scoreboard went another way. Senegal also shaded Corners 3-11.

Before kickoff, our model made Senegal the likeliest result at 60.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Senegal at 73.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (61.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Cashpoint. The market was offering 1.42 against a fair line of 1.40. That translated to an edge of 1.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Senegal

60.8%

Miss

Market result

Senegal

73.5%

Miss

BTTS

No

61.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Senegal

Sudan

Senegal

7

19

Corners

Senegal

Sudan

Senegal

3

11

Possession

Senegal

Sudan

Senegal

34%

66%

Model edge

2

Cashpoint

Market odd

1.42

Fair odd

1.40

Edge

1.4%

Stake

1.46u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.