Sudan
Game ended in draw.
0 - 0
FT
Mauritania
Postmatch editorial
Draw found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Sudan 0-0 Mauritania. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Neither Sudan nor Mauritania found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Sudan led Shots on target 6-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Sudan also shaded Total shots 8-4.
Before kickoff, our model made Sudan the likeliest result at 38.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sudan at 49.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (68.6%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 4.75 against a fair line of 4.39. That translated to an edge of 8.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Sudan
38.2%
Market result
Sudan
49.5%
BTTS
No
68.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
SudanSudan
Mauritania
6
2
Total shots
SudanSudan
Mauritania
8
4
Corners
SudanSudan
Mauritania
5
2
Model edge
2
Bet365
Market odd
4.75
Fair odd
4.39
Edge
8.2%
Stake
0.45u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.