Postmatch editorial

Toulouse settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Strasbourg struck first through Samuel Amo-Ameyaw 27', but Toulouse recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Toulouse led Total shots 9-16. Strasbourg also shaded Corners 8-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Strasbourg the likeliest result at 52.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Toulouse at 43.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 2.67 against a fair line of 2.54. That translated to an edge of 5.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Strasbourg

52.2%

Miss

Market result

Toulouse

43.5%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

60.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Toulouse

Strasbourg

Toulouse

9

16

Corners

Strasbourg

Strasbourg

Toulouse

8

3

Shots on target

Toulouse

Strasbourg

Toulouse

4

6

Model edge

2

Cloudbet

Market odd

2.67

Fair odd

2.54

Edge

5.1%

Stake

0.68u

That ticket matched the final outcome.