Strasbourg
Strasbourg won after full-time.
3 - 1
FT
Olympique Lyonnais
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Strasbourg
The final score was Strasbourg 3-1 Olympique Lyonnais. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Joaquín Panichelli scored 83' for Strasbourg.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Strasbourg led Shots on target 7-2. Strasbourg also shaded Total shots 13-4.
Before kickoff, our model made Olympique Lyonnais the likeliest result at 41.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Strasbourg at 43.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (61.4%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Olympique Lyonnais
41.0%
Market result
Strasbourg
43.1%
BTTS
Yes
61.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
StrasbourgStrasbourg
Olympique Lyonnais
7
2
Total shots
StrasbourgStrasbourg
Olympique Lyonnais
13
4
Corners
StrasbourgStrasbourg
Olympique Lyonnais
4
2
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.