Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean

The final score was Strasbourg 5-4 Monaco. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Monaco struck first through Lamine Camara 10', but Strasbourg recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Monaco led Possession 40%-60%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Monaco also shaded Total shots 15-21.

Before kickoff, our model made Monaco the likeliest result at 43.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Monaco at 51.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (61.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Melbet. The market was offering 3.52 against a fair line of 3.31. That translated to an edge of 6.3% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Monaco

43.3%

Miss

Market result

Monaco

51.3%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

61.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Monaco

Strasbourg

Monaco

40%

60%

Total shots

Monaco

Strasbourg

Monaco

15

21

Corners

Monaco

Strasbourg

Monaco

4

6

Model edge

1

Melbet

Market odd

3.52

Fair odd

3.31

Edge

6.3%

Stake

0.54u

That ticket matched the final outcome.