Postmatch editorial
El Salvador found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1-3 El Salvador. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Nelson Bonilla scored 83' for El Salvador.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: El Salvador led Total shots 8-21. El Salvador also shaded Corners 7-12.
Before kickoff, our model made St. Vincent and the Grenadines the likeliest result at 51.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced El Salvador at 82.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.7%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 10bet. The market was offering 1.28 against a fair line of 1.26. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
51.4%
Market result
El Salvador
82.0%
BTTS
Yes
50.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
El SalvadorSt. Vincent and the Grenadines
El Salvador
8
21
Corners
El SalvadorSt. Vincent and the Grenadines
El Salvador
7
12
Possession
El SalvadorSt. Vincent and the Grenadines
El Salvador
41%
59%
Model edge
2
10bet
Market odd
1.28
Fair odd
1.26
Edge
1.6%
Stake
1.82u
That ticket matched the final outcome.