St. Vincent and the Grenadines won after full-time.
6 - 0
FT
Postmatch editorial
The script held and St. Vincent and the Grenadines delivered it
The final score was St. Vincent and the Grenadines 6-0 Anguilla. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Kirtney Franklyn scored 85' for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: St. Vincent and the Grenadines led Shots on target 10-1. St. Vincent and the Grenadines also shaded Total shots 21-3.
Before kickoff, our model made St. Vincent and the Grenadines the likeliest result at 73.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced St. Vincent and the Grenadines at 92.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.1%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 1.22 against a fair line of 1.21. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
73.1%
Market result
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
92.6%
BTTS
No
56.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
St. Vincent and the GrenadinesSt. Vincent and the Grenadines
Anguilla
10
1
Total shots
St. Vincent and the GrenadinesSt. Vincent and the Grenadines
Anguilla
21
3
Corners
St. Vincent and the GrenadinesSt. Vincent and the Grenadines
Anguilla
9
1
Model edge
1
10bet
Market odd
1.22
Fair odd
1.21
Edge
0.8%
Stake
2.13u
That ticket matched the final outcome.