St. Pauli
SC Freiburg won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
SC Freiburg
Postmatch editorial
SC Freiburg bent the night away from the script
The final score was St. Pauli 1-2 SC Freiburg. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
St. Pauli struck first through Danel Sinani 24', but SC Freiburg recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: St. Pauli led Corners 3-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. SC Freiburg also shaded Total shots 12-15.
Before kickoff, our model made St. Pauli the likeliest result at 43.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced St. Pauli at 37.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.2%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
St. Pauli
43.4%
Market result
St. Pauli
37.7%
BTTS
No
56.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
St. PauliSt. Pauli
SC Freiburg
3
2
Total shots
SC FreiburgSt. Pauli
SC Freiburg
12
15
Shots on target
SC FreiburgSt. Pauli
SC Freiburg
5
6
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.