Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was St. Pauli 1-1 RB Leipzig. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Martijn Kaars 90+3', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: RB Leipzig led Shots on target 2-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. RB Leipzig also shaded Total shots 7-12.
Before kickoff, our model made RB Leipzig the likeliest result at 47.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced RB Leipzig at 57.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.4%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.90 against a fair line of 1.84. That translated to an edge of 3.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
RB Leipzig
47.8%
Market result
RB Leipzig
57.1%
BTTS
Yes
53.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
RB LeipzigSt. Pauli
RB Leipzig
2
5
Total shots
RB LeipzigSt. Pauli
RB Leipzig
7
12
Corners
St. PauliSt. Pauli
RB Leipzig
4
3
Model edge
2
Dafabet
Market odd
1.90
Fair odd
1.84
Edge
3.3%
Stake
0.96u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.