Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Draw

The final score was St. Pauli 1-1 FC Köln. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The late equaliser came from Luca Waldschmidt 86', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: St. Pauli led Shots on target 6-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. St. Pauli also shaded Total shots 14-10.

Before kickoff, our model made FC Köln the likeliest result at 38.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Köln at 40.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.5%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 188bet. The market was offering 3.15 against a fair line of 2.97. That translated to an edge of 6.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

FC Köln

38.9%

Miss

Market result

FC Köln

40.7%

Miss

BTTS

No

50.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

St. Pauli

St. Pauli

FC Köln

6

1

Total shots

St. Pauli

St. Pauli

FC Köln

14

10

Corners

St. Pauli

St. Pauli

FC Köln

8

5

Model edge

2

188bet

Market odd

3.15

Fair odd

2.97

Edge

6.1%

Stake

0.66u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.