Postmatch editorial

The script held and FC Bayern München delivered it

The final score was St. Pauli 0-5 FC Bayern München. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Raphaël Guerreiro scored 88' for FC Bayern München.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Bayern München led Shots on target 3-8. FC Bayern München also shaded Total shots 6-20.

Before kickoff, our model made FC Bayern München the likeliest result at 69.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Bayern München at 76.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.48 against a fair line of 1.45. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

FC Bayern München

69.5%

Hit

Market result

FC Bayern München

76.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

56.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

FC Bayern München

St. Pauli

FC Bayern München

3

8

Total shots

FC Bayern München

St. Pauli

FC Bayern München

6

20

Possession

FC Bayern München

St. Pauli

FC Bayern München

23%

77%

Model edge

2

1xbet

Market odd

1.48

Fair odd

1.45

Edge

2.1%

Stake

1.41u

That ticket matched the final outcome.