Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was St. Lucia 2-2 Aruba. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Walter Bennett put the first mark on the match 21', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: St. Lucia led Total shots 16-12, even though the scoreboard went another way. St. Lucia also shaded Possession 57%-43%.
Before kickoff, our model made St. Lucia the likeliest result at 40.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced St. Lucia at 50.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.7%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Pncl. The market was offering 3.83 against a fair line of 3.58. That translated to an edge of 7.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
St. Lucia
40.0%
Market result
St. Lucia
50.0%
BTTS
Yes
52.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
St. LuciaSt. Lucia
Aruba
16
12
Possession
St. LuciaSt. Lucia
Aruba
57%
43%
Corners
St. LuciaSt. Lucia
Aruba
5
4
Model edge
2
Pncl
Market odd
3.83
Fair odd
3.58
Edge
7.0%
Stake
0.52u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.