Postmatch editorial
Grenada found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was St. Kitts and Nevis 2-3 Grenada. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
St. Kitts and Nevis struck first through Tyreece Simpson 34', but Grenada recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: St. Kitts and Nevis led Total shots 23-18, even though the scoreboard went another way. Grenada also shaded Shots on target 7-8.
Before kickoff, our model made St. Kitts and Nevis the likeliest result at 58.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Grenada at 60.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.6%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Marathon. The market was offering 1.74 against a fair line of 1.69. That translated to an edge of 3.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
St. Kitts and Nevis
58.9%
Market result
Grenada
60.6%
BTTS
Yes
51.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
St. Kitts and NevisSt. Kitts and Nevis
Grenada
23
18
Shots on target
GrenadaSt. Kitts and Nevis
Grenada
7
8
Possession
GrenadaSt. Kitts and Nevis
Grenada
49%
51%
Model edge
2
Marathon
Market odd
1.74
Fair odd
1.69
Edge
3.0%
Stake
1.07u
That ticket matched the final outcome.