Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for El Salvador
The final score was St. Kitts and Nevis 0-4 El Salvador. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Tony Rugamas put the first mark on the match 3', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: El Salvador led Shots on target 1-8. El Salvador also shaded Possession 34%-66%.
Before kickoff, our model made St. Kitts and Nevis the likeliest result at 43.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced El Salvador at 66.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.1%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Williamhill. The market was offering 1.62 against a fair line of 1.58. That translated to an edge of 2.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
St. Kitts and Nevis
43.1%
Market result
El Salvador
66.7%
BTTS
Yes
57.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
El SalvadorSt. Kitts and Nevis
El Salvador
1
8
Possession
El SalvadorSt. Kitts and Nevis
El Salvador
34%
66%
Corners
El SalvadorSt. Kitts and Nevis
El Salvador
4
8
Model edge
2
Williamhill
Market odd
1.62
Fair odd
1.58
Edge
2.5%
Stake
1.17u
That ticket matched the final outcome.