Postmatch editorial
St. Kitts and Nevis made the numbers look right
The final score was St. Kitts and Nevis 1-0 Bahamas. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Ethan Bristow put the first mark on the match 12', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: St. Kitts and Nevis led Shots on target 9-2. St. Kitts and Nevis also shaded Total shots 25-5.
Before kickoff, our model made St. Kitts and Nevis the likeliest result at 64.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced St. Kitts and Nevis at 83.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.7%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.25 against a fair line of 1.24. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
St. Kitts and Nevis
64.6%
Market result
St. Kitts and Nevis
83.3%
BTTS
No
51.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
St. Kitts and NevisSt. Kitts and Nevis
Bahamas
9
2
Total shots
St. Kitts and NevisSt. Kitts and Nevis
Bahamas
25
5
Corners
St. Kitts and NevisSt. Kitts and Nevis
Bahamas
15
3
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
1.25
Fair odd
1.24
Edge
0.8%
Stake
1.95u
That ticket matched the final outcome.