Postmatch editorial

Senegal turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was South Sudan 0-5 Senegal. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Cherif Ndiaye scored 75' for Senegal.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Senegal led Shots on target 0-5. Senegal also shaded Total shots 0-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Senegal the likeliest result at 67.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Senegal at 89.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.17 against a fair line of 1.16. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Senegal

67.1%

Hit

Market result

Senegal

89.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

58.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Senegal

South Sudan

Senegal

0

5

Total shots

Senegal

South Sudan

Senegal

0

5

Corners

Senegal

South Sudan

Senegal

0

5

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

1.17

Fair odd

1.16

Edge

0.9%

Stake

2.59u

That ticket matched the final outcome.