Postmatch editorial

The script held and Congo DR delivered it

The final score was South Sudan 1-4 Congo DR. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Cédric Bakambu put the first mark on the match 13', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Congo DR led Shots on target 4-12. Congo DR also shaded Total shots 6-15.

Before kickoff, our model made Congo DR the likeliest result at 50.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Congo DR at 66.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on X at Betway. The market was offering 4.75 against a fair line of 4.39. That translated to an edge of 8.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Congo DR

50.6%

Hit

Market result

Congo DR

66.2%

Hit

BTTS

No

59.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Congo DR

South Sudan

Congo DR

4

12

Total shots

Congo DR

South Sudan

Congo DR

6

15

Possession

Congo DR

South Sudan

Congo DR

26%

74%

Model edge

X

Betway

Market odd

4.75

Fair odd

4.39

Edge

8.2%

Stake

0.46u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.