Postmatch editorial

Mozambique made the numbers look right

The final score was Somalia 0-1 Mozambique. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Geny Catamo put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Mozambique led Shots on target 0-2. Mozambique also shaded Total shots 2-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Mozambique the likeliest result at 70.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Mozambique at 74.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.8%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.38 against a fair line of 1.36. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Mozambique

70.4%

Hit

Market result

Mozambique

74.1%

Hit

BTTS

No

52.8%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Mozambique

Somalia

Mozambique

0

2

Total shots

Mozambique

Somalia

Mozambique

2

6

Corners

Mozambique

Somalia

Mozambique

4

7

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

1.38

Fair odd

1.36

Edge

1.5%

Stake

1.55u

That ticket matched the final outcome.